Expect state and local governments to re-impose more severe restrictions over the next few month

News from the COVI-19 front -- which is to say nearly everywhere -- is bad and getting worse. It took about 4 months for COV)D-related deaths in this country to hit 100,000, and another 4 months to hit 200,000. The next 100,000 deaths occurred in the space of approximately 12 weeks. And it took only a little over 4 weeks to move from 300,000 deaths to 400,000. (Source: WaPo reporting and Johns Hopkins University) In October, public health authorities were predicting there could be as many as 400,000 deaths before the pandemic is under control. We will hit 400,000 this week, and the death toll is still on the rise in 30 states. (AP, 1/18/21) 

The vaccination program should slow things down, but in addition to vaccine skepticism, the rollout has been agonizingly slow, poorly organized, and far from clearly marketed. Initial shots are supposed to have some effect, but it remains to be seen whether second shots will be available on-schedule. And in any event, masking and social distancing are still called for and will be for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that "pandemic fatigue" has set in, so these traditional public-health measures, which have been demonstrated time and again to be effective against the spread of respiratory viruses, are waning in effectiveness. 

Finally, there are now at least three mutations of the novel coronavirus that make the disease potentially more contagious than the original form of the virus. They have appeared in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil. (The Atlantic, 1/18/21) Our own genomic surveillance is pitifully inadequate to provide reliable data, but at least two of the variants (a fixed cluster of mutations, according to virologists) have appeared in this country.

As Dr. Fauci has explained, all of this adds up to a dismal winter season (CNN, 12/27/20) and a not-much-better spring, with growing pressure on governors and regulators to impose restrictions at least as severe as those in place last summer.