Larry Summers: One Big Beautiful Bill Act* is Shameful

In today's NY Times, economist Larry Summers shreds the new law* not for the horrible macroeconomic effects (an exercise he has already performed**) but for the impact on people. The op-ed is well worth reading (and the link should provide free access to nonsubscribers).

A few highlights:

• "[A] focus on macroeconomics, while valid, misses the human brutality that I now see as the most problematic aspect of the legislation. I don’t remember on any past Fourth of July being so ashamed of an action my country had just taken." By the way, the headline for this op-ed -- presumably provided by a line editor at the paper -- erroneously stated "This Law Made Me Ashamed of My Country." Big difference.
• "This round of budget cuts in Medicaid far exceeds any other cut the United States has made in its social safety net. The approximately $1 trillion reduction, over 10 years, represents about 0.3 percent of gross domestic product. Previously, the most draconian cuts came with President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 tax law. But they were far smaller — $12 billion over 10 years and 0.03 percent of G.D.P. The Trump law will remove more than 11 million people from the rolls, compared with about three million under the Reagan cuts. Other noteworthy reductions to the social safety net, such as the Clinton-era welfare reform, were even smaller."
• "A number of studies suggest that removing one million people from the rolls for one year could result in about 1,000 additional deaths. It follows that removing more than 11 million people for a decade would probably result in more than 100,000 deaths. Because this figure fails to take account of the degradation of service to those who remain eligible — fewer rides to the hospital, less social support — it could well be an underestimate."
• "The cruelty of these cuts is matched only by their stupidity. Medicaid beneficiaries will lose, but so will the rest of us. The cost of care that is no longer reimbursed by Medicaid will instead be borne by hospitals and passed onto paying patients, only at higher levels, because delayed treatment is more expensive. When rural hospitals close, everyone nearby loses. Hospitals like the one where my daughters practice can no longer accept emergencies by air because those beds are occupied by patients with chronic diseases and no place to go."

Summers is not all doom-and-gloom. He ends on this cheery note: 

• "Because of the congressional instinct for political survival, the Medicaid cuts are backloaded beyond the 2026 midterms. Cynicism may have a silver lining. As more people realize what is coming, there is time to alter these policies before grave damage is done. TACO — Trump always chickens out — is a doctrine that should apply well beyond financial markets."

There's more to the op-ed than I've set out here. Definitely worth a few minutes to read the whole thing.

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* No longer the obnoxiously titled "One Big Beautiful Act" Bill, it's now simply "An Act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to title II of H. Con. Res. 14." There's a story behind the name change, courtesy of something called the Byrd Rule. The authoritative congress.gov version is at the top of this post. The "official" reference is Pub. L. No. 119-21.

** Summers: "Last week, Robert Rubin and I warned of the many macroeconomic risks created by the domestic policy bill President Trump signed into law on Friday. I stand by our judgment that it will most likely slow growth, risk a financial crisis, exacerbate trade deficits and undermine national security by exhausting the government’s borrowing capacity. This is more than ample reason to regret its passage."