First: smoke and mirrors. Followed by: pure bunkum.

The Trump administrations recent rulemaking for "association health plans" -- which allow small businesses and others to band together and purchase health plans -- has scored a rare hat trick:

First, the rules disappointed even some of its most ardent supporters by imposing limits that will increase employers' costs for too little in return.

Second, despite the administration's claim that AHPs will provide drastically improved coverage for far less cost than "the failed Obamacare, the exact opposite is true and always has been. The Democrats correctly label the AHPs "junk" that workers will find offers skimpy-to-no coverage for premiums that have been poured down the drain. This is precisely the problem that the ACA's minimum health benefits were intended to cure.

Third, President Trump is now hailing the AHP rule a raging success. At an Iowa roundtable with his HHS secreatry, Alex Acosta, the president had this to say:

“Alex, I hear it’s like record business that they’re doing,” Trump said of the plans, which aren't available for another five weeks. “We just opened about two months ago and I’m hearing that the numbers are incredible -- the numbers of people getting really, really good healthcare instead of Obamacare, which is a disaster.”

Sounds good, eh? The only glitch is that the plans won't be available for purchase until September. If there are "incredible" numbers in July, imagine how huge the sales will be when the plans actually become available in September.

Why is this man smiling?

The U. S. House of Representatives has once again voted against the ACA's tax on medical device manufacturers, after two previous postponements in assessing and collecting the tax, which was an important source of funding for the various subsidies in the ACA that needed to be financed. Repeal of the tax, which would take passage in the Senate and a presidential signature -- both seemingly likely with GOP control -- would be one more nail in the coffin of the ACA. Making matters worse, repeal of the tax has bipartisan support, thanks in large part to the industry's massive lobbying efforts since 2010. What is it that motivates legislators -- usually Republicans, but occasionally Dems as well -- to despise a law that has made health insurance (and thus health care) available to millions of fellow citizens who previously had none?

Lots of us who supported the ACA nearly a decade ago knew no law would be perfect. We also knew that experience with the consequences -- intended and otherwise -- would require near-constant revision. When it comes to health reform, there's no such thing as "one and done." But what is it about the poorest 10+% of the population getting health care that drives lawmakers from "fix it" to "kill it"? From a cost-benefit perspective, which should appeal to business-oriented (and -financed) legislators, our health care system ranks behind that of every other developed country in the world. Our administrative costs are many multiples of those of other nations. "Private profit above public welfare" is an old story, but when the result is avoidable morbidity and premature death for neighbors, we need a new narrative. The ACA was a step in the right direction, but try telling that to the political right!

When futility itself is futile

Medical futility represents a judgment that further treatment would not provide a benefit to the patient. (Set aside for present purposes the definitional and epistemological difficulties that sentence embodies.) Does futility itself have a limit, beyond which the judgment ceases to provide a benefit to the patient, family, even care providers? The authors of a recent article in the Journal of Medical Ethics argue that the Charlie Gard case is an example of just such a limit. https://jme.bmj.com/content/44/7/438.info

Johnson & Johnson mega-verdict

From Bloomberg Legal News:
     "Johnson & Johnson should ready itself for a flood of new lawsuits after a jury ordered the company to pay $4.69 billion to 22 women who blamed their ovarian cancer on asbestos in its talc products, legal experts say.

     "There are already more than 9,000 suits claiming talc-based baby powder causes ovarian and asbestos-specific cancers. That number is likely to jump in the wake of the Missouri jury’s decision, said Elizabeth Chamblee Burch, a University of Georgia law professor who teaches about mass-tort law.

     “'The floodgates were already open on this issue, but this verdict breaks the dam,' Burch said. Bloomberg News has the story."

Brett Kavanaugh is, by all accounts, a splendid fellow, as well as a well-credentialed appellate judge who -- in addition to being quite conservative -- is widely admired by his peers.


Some Democrats, still seething at the shabby treatment Chief Judge Merrick Garland (Chief Judge, mind you, of the same court upon which Judge Kavanaugh sits), are apparently inclined to vote against confirming Judge Kavanaugh on a sort of sauce-for-the-goose theory. CJ Garland is, if anything, even more experienced in all manner of government lawyering than is Judge Kavanaugh, and Leader McConnell's justification for denying President Obama his appointment barely passed the smile test (and wasn't much better when, years earlier, it had been proposed by Sens. Schumer and Biden). If the Democrats vote against Kavanaugh on this basis, it would be for a primarily institutional reason, not necessarily on the merits of the nominee. (Although it would be hard to argue that misgivings about Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court Justice would be irrelevant to such a vote.)

On the merits, though, opponents have been kicking up all kinds of dust. Kavanaugh, Trump, and Trump's press office insist that Roe v. Wade wasn't discussed before the nomination. Cynics might say that it didn't need to be in order for the president to know what he was getting. Maybe. Kavanaugh was one of 13 authors of a massive tome entitled The Law of Judicial Precedent in 2016, and by most accounts in that treatise, standard principles of stare decisis seem to support retention of the Roe precedent (at least as modified by the Webster case).

The argument I don't quite get is that Kavanaugh should be denied a seat on the Court because he would probably be an enemy of the Affordable Care Act. This argument seems to be based on a serious misreading of his dissent in the case that upheld the ACA in his court while a similar case was on its way to the Supreme Court, which also upheld the ACA the next year.

Two things are worthy of note: (1) His dissent was based upon the Anti-Injunction Act, which denies the federal courts jurisdiction to issue an order enjoining the assessment or collection of a tax. Challenges to a tax,  as a result, can only be brought after the tax has been paid. And in the case of the ACA, nobody had been assessed a penalty by the IRS for violating the individual mandate. (2) In the same opinion, Kavanaugh pointed out that if the penalty (which the Obama administration tried to sell to Congress as "not a tax") were re-enacted as a tax, it would have fallen comfortably within Congress's taxing and spending powers. In fact, that is precisely how Chief Justice Roberts managed the next year to uphold the individual mandate. Without waiting for Congress to re-enact anything, Roberts characterized the "penalty" (the actual term in the ACA) as a "tax" and upheld the constitutionality of the individual mandate on that basis. Far from being a foe, it is possible that Kavanaugh was instead throwing out a lifeline to the Court to save one of the most contentious (and probably the most reviled) provision of the ACA. [Postscript: The Washington Post's Colby Itkowitz and others agree with me on this.)

We will hear much about Judge Kavanaugh's record in the months that follow his nomination. The emerging picture is of a judge who supports executive power and frequently opposes what he regards as administrative agencies' "overreach." Both of these strands of his judicial philosophy (and, more broadly, of his theory of government) might lead him to be skeptical of Obama-era healthcare regulations and to be more favorably inclined toward Executive Orders that seek to cut back on key aspects of that law's implementation. EOs have turned out to be one of President Trump's favorite actions (despite his criticism during the 2016 campaign of Pres. Obama's use of EOs). His ACA-limiting EOs include Nos. 13765 and 13813.

If this is what opposition to Judge Kavanaugh comes down to, he should be confirmed. He's conservative, yes. And yes, he probably wouldn't have voted with the Roe majority in 1973 (which is not the same as saying he would vote to overrule it in 2018 or later). But he's getting a bum rap on his ACA vote. He's also superbly qualified in terms of education and experience.

And elections have consequences. The Republicans have the White House and Congress. If they want to solidify a conservative majority on the Court, one judicial appointment at a time, they can do that.