CMS estimates national health expenditures to increase to 19.6% of GDP in 10 years

From Health Affairs (online, June 14):

New estimates released today from the Office of the Actuary (OACT) at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and published online today in Health Affairs project a rate of national health spending growth of 4.3 percent for 2022, with expenditures projected to have reached $4.4 trillion. Health spending over the course of 2022–31 is expected to grow 5.4 percent per year on average.

This study will also appear in the July 2023 issue of Health Affairs. The link to the full study, once the embargo lifts, will be https://health-policy.healthaffairs.org/keehan/july2023issue/aop.

Economic growth is expected to have outpaced growth in national health spending in 2022, causing ta decrease in the projected health spending share of gross domestic product (GDP) from 18.3 percent in 2021 to 17.4 percent in 2022. However, over the course of the 2022–31 period, nominal GDP is expected to grow 4.6 percent annually—0.8 percentage point lower than average growth in national health expenditures—resulting in health spending accounting for 19.6 percent of GDP by 2031 (emphasis added).