In a 7-2 decision (majority opinion by Justice Breyer, dissent by Justice Alito), the Supreme Court today tossed out the suit filed by Texas plus other states and two individuals, not on the merits but for lack of standing.
Basic standing analysis requires a direct harm to the plaintiff that is [1] traceable to an unlawful action or provision of law and is [2] redressable if a court were to give the plaintiff the relief it seeks. The majority opinion concluded that -- even if it agreed that the individual mandate lost its constitutional moorings when in 2017 Congress zeroed out the tax for noncompliance -- the only burdens (i.e., "harms") the plaintiffs could point to were the costs of complying with the presumptively lawful parts of the ACA that remained on the books. It is hard to see how future plaintiffs would be able to overcome the standing hurdle created by this opinion.
As the dissent points out,
Today’s decision is the third installment in our epic Affordable Care Act trilogy, and it follows the same pattern as installments one and two. In all three episodes, with the Affordable Care Act facing a serious threat, the Court has pulled off an improbable rescue.
None of this is to say that challenges to the ACA on other grounds can't or won't be brought, but opponents are running out of constitutional theories. Indeed, the Court has already granted cert. in two ACA cases for the 2021 Term (Nos. 20-429 and 20-539), and there are 6 more ACA cases listed for the Court's next conference. See Nos. 20-219, 20-1162, 20-1200, 20-1374, 20-1432, and 20-1536. All 8 cases are statutory-interpretation cases and none challenge the constitutionality of the ACA or any part of it.
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