SCOTUS still has to decide a big ACA case

On November 10, 2020, the Supreme Court heard oral argument (recording, transcript) in the two cases that will again decide the fate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA): Texas v. California, 19-1019, and California v. Texas, 19-840. Only two cases argued earlier in the Term remain undecided, and as we move into the last month before the Court's summer recess, timing alone suggests the ACA cases are proving to be highly contentious within the Court.

I have a hard time believing the Court will affirm the Fifth Circuit and the District Court and toss out the entire ACA on the specious ground that Congress wouldn't want the ACA to survive without the individual mandate. The premise -- that there is no longer an individual mandate -- flies in the face of the fact that the ACA still contains the individual mandate. The penalty for not purchasing health-insurance coverage was reduced to $0 in the 2017 tax reform law, which renders the mandate a somewhat toothless requirement, But even before 2017, the IRS's collection tools under the ACA were quite limited, which rendered the individual mandate one of the most under-enforced requirements in the United States Code.

Even if the Court agrees that the individual mandate is no more, however, the idea that the Court would go along with tossing out the entire ACA is mind-boggling. That would mean:

• no more prohibition against pre-existing condition exclusions
• no more prohibition against arbitrary and discriminatory rescissions
• no more family coverage for children up to age 26
• the reintroduction of annual and lifetime caps on coverage
• no more Medicaid expansion funds (raising a serious question about the status of funds for the 39 states that have expanded eligibility based on a promise of a generous (read: massive) federal subsidy)
• the elimination of federal insurance exchanges and possibly state exchanges, too
• the elimination of premium tax credits for low-income households
• the elimination of subsidies for out-of-pocket expenditures
• the elimination of what amounts to a cap on the amount insurers can spend on items other than health-care claims (accompanied by a premium rebate when non-health-care expenditures exceed the permitted amount)
• and on and on and on.

None of these practical effects has a doctrinal role in deciding whether the individual mandate is "severable" from the rest of the ACA, in which case the Fifth Circuit should be reversed. Similarly, consistent and growing public support for the ACA since late 2016 has no doctrinal significance. The question instead is whether Congress would want the entire ACA to go away if the individual mandate were to fall. 

What I thought would be an easy question is taking the Court a very long time to work out. If Lyle Denniston, who's been covering the Court for over 60 years, is concerned about what is going on with these cases, we all should be.

COVID-19 at the Intersection of Criminal Justice Reform and Public Health

Interesting new piece is Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS): "Carceral-community epidemiology, structural racism, and COVID-19 disparities" by Reinhart and Chen. They report on a Cook County study and offer the following summary and recommendation:

As jails and prisons remain leading sites of COVID-19 outbreaks, mass incarceration poses ongoing health risks for communities. We investigate whether short-term jailing of individuals prior to release may drive COVID-19 spread. We find that cycling individuals through Cook County Jail in March 2020 alone can account for 13% of all COVID-19 cases and 21% of racial COVID-19 disparities in Chicago as of early August. We conclude that detention for alleged offenses that can be safely managed without incarceration is likely harming public safety and driving racial health disparities. These findings reinforce consensus among public health experts that large-scale decarceration should be implemented to protect incarcerated people, mitigate disease spread and racial disparities, and improve biosecurity and pandemic preparedness.

The full article is well worth a close read. 

Texas Blows it Again on Medicaid Expansion

Health Affairs has posted a nice summary of the Biden Administration's attempt to entice the hold-out states to expand Medicaid pursuant to the ACA (though it unfortunately has absolutely no relevance to Texas -- read on):

In the newest addition to our “Eye On Health Reform” series, Katie Keith covers the American Rescue Plan Act, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden in March.

Keith explains that the legislation temporarily expands the Affordable Care Act’s premium tax credits and increases federal financial incentives for holdout states to expand their Medicaid programs. Keith also explores enrollment trends in states that use HealthCare.gov, current ACA litigation, and ACA guidance from the Biden administration.

I wrote about an earlier plan to pay hold-outs on Feb. 16, back when the prospects for expansion in Texas seemed, if not bright, at least alive. By my count there were five House bills, two Senate bills, four House Joint Resolutions, and three Senate Joint Resolutions that would have authorized (or required) Texas to take advantage of the federal dollars that would become available if Texas were to expand Medicaid eligibility to 138% of the federal poverty limit. Would it be cynical of me -- or simply realistic -- to report that every single one of these proposals died in committee? Every one! What is there to say other than it really sucks to be poor and live in Texas, where the legislature seems determined to keep a minimum level of health care out of reach for five million of its citizens.

For the record, here are the links to the bills and JRs, along with the names of co-sponsors:

HJR 9, 23, 24, 86
SJR 11, 14, 15
HB 143, 398, 513, 1730, 4406
SB 38, 119

"What Has President Biden Done in Health Care Coverage in His First 100 Days?"

There is a new Commonwealth Fund report by Tim Jost and Mark Regan looks at executive orders, legislation, and litigation in the Biden Administration's first 100 days. The focus is on strengthening and expanding the ACA and Medicaid, largely (but not entirely) by undoing the damage wreaked by the previous administration, which seemed hell-bent on increasing the sum total of human misery across the board.